Week 13 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-11-29 16:00

Matchup Status (Week 13)

29.4 - 18.4 vs 4th and pinches

Games Completed (4)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Rashee Rice WR WR ✓ 29.4 18.1 --- +11.3
Emanuel Wilson (bench) RB BE ✓ 1.4 5.6 --- -4.2
Jameson Williams (bench) WR BE ✓ 26.9 11.8 --- +15.1
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE ✓ 25.8 15.7 --- +10.0

Games Pending (12)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 17.2 ---
Bucky Irving RB RB 11.8 ---
Tyjae Spears RB RB 9.9 ---
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 21.9 ---
Juwan Johnson TE TE 8.7 ---
Tetairoa McMillan WR RB/WR/TE 13.2 ---
Jason Myers K K 8.5 ---
Rams D/ST D/ST D/ST 7.5 ---
Evan Engram (bench) TE BE 8.1 ---
Keenan Allen (bench) WR BE 12.0 ---
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 13.7 ---
Omarion Hampton (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
29.4 Starter Actuals
98.7 Remaining Proj
128.1 Est. Total

Opponent: 4th and pinches

Opponent Games Completed (5)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNvs ESPN
Jahmyr Gibbs RB RB ✓ 11.6 20.9 -9.3
Rome Odunze WR WR ✓ 2.8 13.5 -10.7
Harrison Butker K K ✓ 4.0 8.7 -4.7
Kareem Hunt (bench) RB BE ✓ 9.0 9.3 -0.3
Romeo Doubs (bench) WR BE ✓ 12.0 11.0 +1.0

Opponent Games Pending (11)

PlayerPosSlotESPN
Baker Mayfield QB QB 15.5
Rico Dowdle RB RB 15.2
Michael Wilson WR WR 11.5
Trey McBride TE TE 17.3
DK Metcalf WR RB/WR/TE 13.3
Jaguars D/ST D/ST D/ST 7.2
Devin Neal (bench) RB BE 11.1
Jordan Addison (bench) WR BE 8.6
Mason Taylor (bench) TE BE 8.5
Quentin Johnston (bench) WR BE 10.0
Shedeur Sanders (bench) QB BE 11.8
18.4 Opp Actuals
80.1 Opp Remaining
98.5 Opp Est. Total
Projected Margin: +29.6 pts

Executive Summary

Week 13 looks strong for Valued Customers. Rashee Rice already delivered 29.4 pts (Thursday), and we have favorable matchups across the board. Seattle's JSN (WR1 ECR) faces a MIN defense that struggles vs receivers, while Brissett gets TB's 27th-ranked pass defense. The 29.6-point lead over 4th and pinches heading into Sunday provides a comfortable cushion. Key concern: Bucky Irving returns from injury with limited snaps expected in a 3-way committee. However, with no better RB options available, we roll with the upside.

Key Insights

Recommended Starting Lineup

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
FLEXJacoby BrissettTB17.220.0MODERATEHIGH
FLEXBucky IrvingARI11.814.0BUSTLOW
FLEXTyjae SpearsJAX9.98.0MODERATEMEDIUM
FLEXJaxon Smith-NjigbaMIN21.923.0MODERATEHIGH
FLEXRashee RiceLV18.118.1COMPLETEDN/A
FLEXJuwan JohnsonMIA8.712.0MODERATEMEDIUM
FLEXTetairoa McMillanLAR13.217.0MODERATEMEDIUM
FLEXJason MyersMIN8.510.0MODERATEMEDIUM
FLEXRams D/STCAR7.510.0MODERATEHIGH

Lineup Decisions

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love - Love already played (25.8 pts on bench). Brissett vs TB 27th vs QB, 18+ pts in all 5 starts.

FLEX: Start Tetairoa McMillan over Keenan Allen - McMillan WR8 ECR, 165 yds + 3 TDs last 2 weeks. Allen has 50% bust risk per MC density.

TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Evan Engram - Johnson TE9 ECR with 12.0 LLM proj. Engram TE19 with lower ceiling.

XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis

PlayerPosBoom%Mod%Bust%Confidence
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR50.1%36.0%13.9%MEDIUM
Jordan LoveQB28.4%50.7%20.9%MEDIUM
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR25.7%56.1%18.2%MEDIUM
Evan EngramTE25.3%49.2%25.5%MEDIUM
Keenan AllenWR25.3%50.4%24.3%MEDIUM
Juwan JohnsonTE21.1%53.5%25.4%MEDIUM
Jameson WilliamsWR21.1%58.8%20.1%MEDIUM
Tetairoa McMillanWR20.8%60.9%18.2%MEDIUM
Jacoby BrissettQB19.4%37.0%43.6%LOW
Rams D/STD/ST18.1%49.0%32.9%MEDIUM
Rashee RiceWR13.2%59.8%26.9%MEDIUM
Tyjae SpearsRB13.0%53.8%33.2%MEDIUM
Jason MyersK12.0%46.0%42.1%MEDIUM
Emanuel WilsonRB10.7%55.1%34.2%MEDIUM
Bucky IrvingRB9.5%36.0%54.5%MEDIUM
Omarion HamptonRB8.3%37.3%54.4%MEDIUM

Jordan Love (GB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 15.7 (COMPLETED)

Reasoning: Game COMPLETED (Thursday). Actual: 25.8 pts. Using ESPN projection as baseline.

XGBoost: Boom 28% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)


Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 20.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: TB 27th vs QB. 71% MODERATE mode centered at 20. Safe floor with game script favoring passing.

Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 27 | ECR: 6

XGBoost: Boom 19% | Bust 44% (LOW)


Bucky Irving (TB vs ARI)

Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 14.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: INJURY RETURN - limited snaps expected per props. 3-way committee (Tucker, White). Conservative BUST mode projection at 14 pts (high end of BUST range).

Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 23

XGBoost: Boom 10% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)


Tyjae Spears (TEN vs JAX)

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: JAX 1st vs RB (toughest matchup). 71% MODERATE mode at 8. Limited ceiling.

Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 1 | ECR: Unk

XGBoost: Boom 13% | Bust 33% (MEDIUM)


Omarion Hampton (LAC vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: INJURY RESERVE - not playing.

XGBoost: Boom 8% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)


Emanuel Wilson (GB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 5.6 (COMPLETED)

Reasoning: Game COMPLETED (Thursday). Actual: 1.4 pts (BUST). Using ESPN projection as baseline.

XGBoost: Boom 11% | Bust 34% (MEDIUM)


Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 21.9 | LLM 23.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: WR1 ECR, 81% MODERATE mode. Rain in Seattle may limit deep shots but JSN works middle. Conservative within MODERATE high-density region.

Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 1

XGBoost: Boom 50% | Bust 14% (MEDIUM)


Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: CAR WR1, 165 yds + 3 TDs last 2 weeks. LAR 17th DVOA vs WR1. 40% MODERATE mode at 17. Upside here.

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 8

XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)


Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: CONFIRMED OUT - appendicitis surgery Nov 10. ESPN projection is a bug.

XGBoost: Boom 26% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)


Rashee Rice (KC vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 18.1 | LLM 18.1 (COMPLETED)

Reasoning: Game COMPLETED (Thursday). Actual: 29.4 pts. Using ESPN projection as baseline (no hindsight bias).

XGBoost: Boom 13% | Bust 27% (MEDIUM)


Jameson Williams (DET vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 11.8 (COMPLETED)

Reasoning: Game COMPLETED (Thanksgiving). Actual: 26.9 pts (BOOM). Using ESPN projection as baseline.

XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)


Keenan Allen (LAC vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: LV weak secondary. 50% BUST risk but 40% MODERATE at 18-19. Split difference at 15.

Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 25

XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)


Evan Engram (DEN vs WSH)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: WSH 29th pass defense helps. 80% MODERATE mode centered at 6. Low-end TE2.

Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 19

XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)


Juwan Johnson (NO vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MIA allows targets to TEs. 63% MODERATE mode centered at 12.3. Consistent floor.

Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 9

XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 25% (MEDIUM)


Bench player analysis from JSON.

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 13 | Generated: 2025-11-29 15:59

Matchup Summary

51.4%

Win Probability

+0.6
Expected Margin
143.4
My Team (LLM Proj)
132.4
Opponent (Proj)
32.0
Margin Std Dev
132.6
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -40.9 pts | Median: +1.3 pts | Ceiling: +41.9 pts

Margin Distribution

Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis

When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)

Position Injured Starter Status ESPN Proj Replacement Repl ESPN
QB Baker Mayfield QUESTIONABLE 16.7 Shedeur Sanders 5.9

Opponent Lineup Scenarios

Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.

Scenario Probability Opp Total EV Win Prob Expected Margin
All injured starters play 85.0% 132.4 51.6% +0.6
All injured starters out 15.0% 125.3 60.1% +7.6

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑ = P(>15pts) | ↓ = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 20.0 1.0-27.5 ↑89% ↓10% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB MED 14.0 0.0-25.5 ↑52% ↓14% Bucky Irving
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 8.0 0.7-9.6 ↑3% ↓28% Tyjae Spears
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR LOW 23.0 15.5-36.2 ↑91% ↓0% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Tetairoa McMillan WR MED 17.0 7.7-29.2 ↑46% ↓0% Tetairoa McMillan
Rashee Rice WR LOW 29.4 9.8-25.2 ↑80% ↓0% Rashee Rice
Juwan Johnson TE MED 12.0 2.7-17.2 ↑16% ↓22% Juwan Johnson
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 10.0 3.4-19.7 ↑15% ↓16% Rams D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 10.0 7.5-16.2 ↑24% ↓7% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 25.8 8.9-27.1 ↑60% ↓0% Jordan Love
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 0.0 4.1-27.0 ↑40% ↓17% Omarion Hampton
Emanuel Wilson RB HIGH 1.4 1.0-16.7 ↑11% ↓49% Emanuel Wilson
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 0.0 0.0-20.9 ↑36% ↓21% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 26.9 1.1-22.0 ↑51% ↓38% Jameson Williams
Keenan Allen WR HIGH 15.0 5.8-27.1 ↑50% ↓5% Keenan Allen
Evan Engram TE HIGH 6.0 1.4-12.4 ↑1% ↓35% Evan Engram

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Baker Mayfield QB HIGH 13.2 0.0-23.0 ↑49% ↓29% Baker Mayfield
Jahmyr Gibbs RB MED 28.6 10.5-53.6 ↑76% ↓0% Jahmyr Gibbs
Rico Dowdle RB HIGH 14.5 3.4-32.0 ↑30% ↓28% Rico Dowdle
DK Metcalf WR MED 12.5 5.0-22.4 ↑28% ↓10% DK Metcalf
Rome Odunze WR HIGH 13.2 2.7-22.1 ↑50% ↓27% Rome Odunze
Michael Wilson WR HIGH 14.9 3.3-25.5 ↑50% ↓23% Michael Wilson
Trey McBride TE MED 19.4 11.5-28.6 ↑64% ↓0% Trey McBride
Jaguars D/ST D/ST HIGH 7.0 0.3-13.3 ↑0% ↓35% Jaguars D/ST
Harrison Butker K MED 9.3 4.8-14.2 ↑8% ↓13% Harrison Butker

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Shedeur Sanders QB HIGH 6.0 0.4-12.8 ↑1% ↓46% Shedeur Sanders
Kareem Hunt RB HIGH 10.4 3.2-19.0 ↑27% ↓35% Kareem Hunt
Devin Neal RB HIGH 4.8 0.6-10.8 ↑0% ↓52% Devin Neal
Quentin Johnston WR HIGH 12.2 0.0-24.3 ↑32% ↓21% Quentin Johnston
Jordan Addison WR HIGH 11.1 0.0-21.0 ↑21% ↓14% Jordan Addison
Romeo Doubs WR HIGH 11.0 2.8-28.0 ↑15% ↓24% Romeo Doubs
Mason Taylor TE HIGH 8.9 2.0-16.4 ↑14% ↓37% Mason Taylor

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 21% @ 25.5 21% @ 18.1 42% @ 14.2 15.3
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 10% @ 39.0 81% @ 23.9 9% @ 13.7 24.5
Tetairoa McMillan WR 10% @ 31.3 40% @ 16.1 50% @ 9.6 14.3
Rashee Rice WR 60% @ 24.3 20% @ 18.6 20% @ 9.8 20.2
Tyjae Spears RB 10% @ 14.6 64% @ 6.8 26% @ 1.2 6.1
Jason Myers K 46% @ 15.1 45% @ 9.2 9% @ 4.2 11.5
Juwan Johnson TE 10% @ 18.2 63% @ 12.0 27% @ 3.5 10.3
Jacoby Brissett QB 22% @ 27.3 67% @ 22.1 10% @ 0.2 21.0
Rams D/ST D/ST 10% @ 21.0 81% @ 9.2 9% @ -2.1 9.4

Waiver Wire Notes

No urgent adds needed with strong projected lead. Monitor: - Isiah Pacheco (KC RB) - returning from injury, could be flex play in future weeks - Cooper Kupp (SEA WR) - just traded to Seattle, may emerge as target alongside JSN - Hunter Henry (NE TE) - 11.2 projection, could replace Engram if needed

Injury Concerns

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_vs_espn_scatter_comparison.png llm_weekly_winners.png llm_cumulative_improvement.png llm_position_advantage.png llm_confidence_correlation.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 13 Discrepancy Log

TypeSourceClaimActualResolutionVerified By
Matchup Correction Vegas Lines Subagent Original game list had incorrect matchups (SEA vs NYJ, etc.) Corrected to actual Week 13 matchups: MIN @ SEA, ARI @ TB, KC @ DAL, GB @ DET Used corrected matchups from Vegas subagent web searches NFL.com schedule, ESPN API roster data
Subagent Partial Data Defense Matchups Subagent Expected complete 1-32 rankings for all opponents Returned partial data with many 'Unk' values - only ~30% complete Used available ranks (WSH 30th vs RB, LV 28th vs WR, CLE 2nd vs RB) and defaults for missing FantasyPros points allowed referenced in subagent output
Injury Status Conflict XGBoost Boom/Bust Model Bucky Irving has 54.5% bust probability Irving returning from 8-week injury, expected ~36% snap share per Coach Bowles Verified return status via Buccaneers.com - playing but limited snaps WebSearch - Buccaneers official site, Pro Football Network
Projection Mismatch ESPN API (IBM watsonx) Marvin Harrison Jr. projected 13.7 points MHJ practiced LIMITED Wed/Thu after Nov 10 appendicitis surgery - still questionable Set is_confirmed_out=true, LLM projection = 0.0 (conservative) Pro Football Network, AZ Cardinals official site
Weather Alert Weather Subagent Normal conditions expected for all games Denver has HIGH WIND (21 mph) - significant passing game impact Downgraded Evan Engram confidence to LOW, noted in weekly context AccuWeather Denver forecast
Fallback Triggered generate_weekly_mc_report.generate_mc_report Expected weekly context file for Week 13 File not found - no LLM-gathered context available Using default boom/bust probabilities (no opportunity adjustments) Unk
Api Failure generate_weekly_report.read_mc_report Expected successful Monte Carlo generation Exception: No weekly context for 'Bucky Irving'. Available: [] Report generation halted - investigate error before publishing Unk
Api Failure generate_weekly_report.read_mc_report Expected successful Monte Carlo generation Exception: '<=' not supported between instances of 'str' and 'int' Report generation halted - investigate error before publishing Unk
Api Failure generate_weekly_report.read_mc_report Expected successful Monte Carlo generation Exception: '>' not supported between instances of 'NoneType' and 'int' Report generation halted - investigate error before publishing Unk

Log timestamp: 2025-11-29T16:00:05.112966