Matchup Status (Week 13)
Games Completed (4)
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | ✓ 29.4 | 18.1 | --- | +11.3 |
| Emanuel Wilson (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 1.4 | 5.6 | --- | -4.2 |
| Jameson Williams (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 26.9 | 11.8 | --- | +15.1 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 25.8 | 15.7 | --- | +10.0 |
Games Pending (12)
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 17.2 | --- |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 11.8 | --- |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB | 9.9 | --- |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 21.9 | --- |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 8.7 | --- |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.2 | --- |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.5 | --- |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 7.5 | --- |
| Evan Engram (bench) | TE | BE | 8.1 | --- |
| Keenan Allen (bench) | WR | BE | 12.0 | --- |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 13.7 | --- |
| Omarion Hampton (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
Opponent: 4th and pinches
Opponent Games Completed (5)
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | RB | ✓ 11.6 | 20.9 | -9.3 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | WR | ✓ 2.8 | 13.5 | -10.7 |
| Harrison Butker | K | K | ✓ 4.0 | 8.7 | -4.7 |
| Kareem Hunt (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 9.0 | 9.3 | -0.3 |
| Romeo Doubs (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 12.0 | 11.0 | +1.0 |
Opponent Games Pending (11)
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB | 15.5 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | RB | 15.2 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR | 11.5 |
| Trey McBride | TE | TE | 17.3 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.3 |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 7.2 |
| Devin Neal (bench) | RB | BE | 11.1 |
| Jordan Addison (bench) | WR | BE | 8.6 |
| Mason Taylor (bench) | TE | BE | 8.5 |
| Quentin Johnston (bench) | WR | BE | 10.0 |
| Shedeur Sanders (bench) | QB | BE | 11.8 |
Executive Summary
Week 13 looks strong for Valued Customers. Rashee Rice already delivered 29.4 pts (Thursday), and we have favorable matchups across the board. Seattle's JSN (WR1 ECR) faces a MIN defense that struggles vs receivers, while Brissett gets TB's 27th-ranked pass defense. The 29.6-point lead over 4th and pinches heading into Sunday provides a comfortable cushion. Key concern: Bucky Irving returns from injury with limited snaps expected in a 3-way committee. However, with no better RB options available, we roll with the upside.
Key Insights
- Rashee Rice BOOM: 29.4 pts Thursday (11/183/1 line) - already banked
- Jordan Love left on bench: 25.8 pts wasted, but Brissett matchup still projects well
- Jameson Williams BOOM on bench: 26.9 pts (DET vs CHI) - unfortunate but unpredictable
- JSN elite floor: WR1 ECR, 10+ receptions in 5 straight, 50% boom probability per XGBoost
- McMillan emerging: 165 yds + 3 TDs last 2 weeks, WR8 ECR, clear FLEX over Allen
- Irving injury risk: 54.5% bust probability per XGBoost, but no alternatives
Recommended Starting Lineup
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLEX | Jacoby Brissett | TB | 17.2 | 20.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| FLEX | Bucky Irving | ARI | 11.8 | 14.0 | BUST | LOW |
| FLEX | Tyjae Spears | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | MIN | 21.9 | 23.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| FLEX | Rashee Rice | LV | 18.1 | 18.1 | COMPLETED | N/A |
| FLEX | Juwan Johnson | MIA | 8.7 | 12.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Tetairoa McMillan | LAR | 13.2 | 17.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Jason Myers | MIN | 8.5 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Rams D/ST | CAR | 7.5 | 10.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
Lineup Decisions
QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love - Love already played (25.8 pts on bench). Brissett vs TB 27th vs QB, 18+ pts in all 5 starts.
FLEX: Start Tetairoa McMillan over Keenan Allen - McMillan WR8 ECR, 165 yds + 3 TDs last 2 weeks. Allen has 50% bust risk per MC density.
TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Evan Engram - Johnson TE9 ECR with 12.0 LLM proj. Engram TE19 with lower ceiling.
XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis
| Player | Pos | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 50.1% | 36.0% | 13.9% | MEDIUM |
| Jordan Love | QB | 28.4% | 50.7% | 20.9% | MEDIUM |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 25.7% | 56.1% | 18.2% | MEDIUM |
| Evan Engram | TE | 25.3% | 49.2% | 25.5% | MEDIUM |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 25.3% | 50.4% | 24.3% | MEDIUM |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 21.1% | 53.5% | 25.4% | MEDIUM |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 21.1% | 58.8% | 20.1% | MEDIUM |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 20.8% | 60.9% | 18.2% | MEDIUM |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 19.4% | 37.0% | 43.6% | LOW |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 18.1% | 49.0% | 32.9% | MEDIUM |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 13.2% | 59.8% | 26.9% | MEDIUM |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 13.0% | 53.8% | 33.2% | MEDIUM |
| Jason Myers | K | 12.0% | 46.0% | 42.1% | MEDIUM |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | 10.7% | 55.1% | 34.2% | MEDIUM |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 9.5% | 36.0% | 54.5% | MEDIUM |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 8.3% | 37.3% | 54.4% | MEDIUM |
Jordan Love (GB vs MIA)
Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 15.7 (COMPLETED)
Reasoning: Game COMPLETED (Thursday). Actual: 25.8 pts. Using ESPN projection as baseline.
XGBoost: Boom 28% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs TB)
Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 20.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: TB 27th vs QB. 71% MODERATE mode centered at 20. Safe floor with game script favoring passing.
Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 27 | ECR: 6
XGBoost: Boom 19% | Bust 44% (LOW)
Bucky Irving (TB vs ARI)
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 14.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: INJURY RETURN - limited snaps expected per props. 3-way committee (Tucker, White). Conservative BUST mode projection at 14 pts (high end of BUST range).
Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 23
XGBoost: Boom 10% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)
Tyjae Spears (TEN vs JAX)
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: JAX 1st vs RB (toughest matchup). 71% MODERATE mode at 8. Limited ceiling.
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 1 | ECR: Unk
XGBoost: Boom 13% | Bust 33% (MEDIUM)
Omarion Hampton (LAC vs LV)
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: INJURY RESERVE - not playing.
XGBoost: Boom 8% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
Emanuel Wilson (GB vs MIA)
Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 5.6 (COMPLETED)
Reasoning: Game COMPLETED (Thursday). Actual: 1.4 pts (BUST). Using ESPN projection as baseline.
XGBoost: Boom 11% | Bust 34% (MEDIUM)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs MIN)
Projections: ESPN 21.9 | LLM 23.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: WR1 ECR, 81% MODERATE mode. Rain in Seattle may limit deep shots but JSN works middle. Conservative within MODERATE high-density region.
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 1
XGBoost: Boom 50% | Bust 14% (MEDIUM)
Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs LAR)
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: CAR WR1, 165 yds + 3 TDs last 2 weeks. LAR 17th DVOA vs WR1. 40% MODERATE mode at 17. Upside here.
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 8
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs TB)
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: CONFIRMED OUT - appendicitis surgery Nov 10. ESPN projection is a bug.
XGBoost: Boom 26% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)
Rashee Rice (KC vs LV)
Projections: ESPN 18.1 | LLM 18.1 (COMPLETED)
Reasoning: Game COMPLETED (Thursday). Actual: 29.4 pts. Using ESPN projection as baseline (no hindsight bias).
XGBoost: Boom 13% | Bust 27% (MEDIUM)
Jameson Williams (DET vs CHI)
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 11.8 (COMPLETED)
Reasoning: Game COMPLETED (Thanksgiving). Actual: 26.9 pts (BOOM). Using ESPN projection as baseline.
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)
Keenan Allen (LAC vs LV)
Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: LV weak secondary. 50% BUST risk but 40% MODERATE at 18-19. Split difference at 15.
Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 25
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)
Evan Engram (DEN vs WSH)
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: WSH 29th pass defense helps. 80% MODERATE mode centered at 6. Low-end TE2.
Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 19
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)
Juwan Johnson (NO vs MIA)
Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MIA allows targets to TEs. 63% MODERATE mode centered at 12.3. Consistent floor.
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 9
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 25% (MEDIUM)
Bench player analysis from JSON.
Monte Carlo Projection Report
Matchup Summary
Win Probability
Margin Distribution (80% Range)
Floor: -40.9 pts | Median: +1.3 pts | Ceiling: +41.9 pts
Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Baker Mayfield | QUESTIONABLE | 16.7 | Shedeur Sanders | 5.9 |
Opponent Lineup Scenarios
Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.
| Scenario | Probability | Opp Total EV | Win Prob | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All injured starters play | 85.0% | 132.4 | 51.6% | +0.6 |
| All injured starters out | 15.0% | 125.3 | 60.1% | +7.6 |
My Team
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑ = P(>15pts) | ↓ = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
Starters
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 20.0 | 1.0-27.5 | ↑89% ↓10% |  |
| Bucky Irving | RB | MED | 14.0 | 0.0-25.5 | ↑52% ↓14% |  |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 0.7-9.6 | ↑3% ↓28% |  |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | LOW | 23.0 | 15.5-36.2 | ↑91% ↓0% |  |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | MED | 17.0 | 7.7-29.2 | ↑46% ↓0% |  |
| Rashee Rice | WR | LOW | 29.4 | 9.8-25.2 | ↑80% ↓0% |  |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | MED | 12.0 | 2.7-17.2 | ↑16% ↓22% |  |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 10.0 | 3.4-19.7 | ↑15% ↓16% |  |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 10.0 | 7.5-16.2 | ↑24% ↓7% |  |
Bench
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 25.8 | 8.9-27.1 | ↑60% ↓0% |  |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 4.1-27.0 | ↑40% ↓17% |  |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | HIGH | 1.4 | 1.0-16.7 | ↑11% ↓49% |  |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 0.0 | 0.0-20.9 | ↑36% ↓21% |  |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 26.9 | 1.1-22.0 | ↑51% ↓38% |  |
| Keenan Allen | WR | HIGH | 15.0 | 5.8-27.1 | ↑50% ↓5% |  |
| Evan Engram | TE | HIGH | 6.0 | 1.4-12.4 | ↑1% ↓35% |  |
Opponent
Starters
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | HIGH | 13.2 | 0.0-23.0 | ↑49% ↓29% |  |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | MED | 28.6 | 10.5-53.6 | ↑76% ↓0% |  |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | HIGH | 14.5 | 3.4-32.0 | ↑30% ↓28% |  |
| DK Metcalf | WR | MED | 12.5 | 5.0-22.4 | ↑28% ↓10% |  |
| Rome Odunze | WR | HIGH | 13.2 | 2.7-22.1 | ↑50% ↓27% |  |
| Michael Wilson | WR | HIGH | 14.9 | 3.3-25.5 | ↑50% ↓23% |  |
| Trey McBride | TE | MED | 19.4 | 11.5-28.6 | ↑64% ↓0% |  |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 7.0 | 0.3-13.3 | ↑0% ↓35% |  |
| Harrison Butker | K | MED | 9.3 | 4.8-14.2 | ↑8% ↓13% |  |
Bench
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | QB | HIGH | 6.0 | 0.4-12.8 | ↑1% ↓46% |  |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | HIGH | 10.4 | 3.2-19.0 | ↑27% ↓35% |  |
| Devin Neal | RB | HIGH | 4.8 | 0.6-10.8 | ↑0% ↓52% |  |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | HIGH | 12.2 | 0.0-24.3 | ↑32% ↓21% |  |
| Jordan Addison | WR | HIGH | 11.1 | 0.0-21.0 | ↑21% ↓14% |  |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | HIGH | 11.0 | 2.8-28.0 | ↑15% ↓24% |  |
| Mason Taylor | TE | HIGH | 8.9 | 2.0-16.4 | ↑14% ↓37% |  |
Scenario Details
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 21% @ 25.5 | 21% @ 18.1 | 42% @ 14.2 | 15.3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 10% @ 39.0 | 81% @ 23.9 | 9% @ 13.7 | 24.5 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 10% @ 31.3 | 40% @ 16.1 | 50% @ 9.6 | 14.3 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 60% @ 24.3 | 20% @ 18.6 | 20% @ 9.8 | 20.2 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 10% @ 14.6 | 64% @ 6.8 | 26% @ 1.2 | 6.1 |
| Jason Myers | K | 46% @ 15.1 | 45% @ 9.2 | 9% @ 4.2 | 11.5 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 10% @ 18.2 | 63% @ 12.0 | 27% @ 3.5 | 10.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 22% @ 27.3 | 67% @ 22.1 | 10% @ 0.2 | 21.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 10% @ 21.0 | 81% @ 9.2 | 9% @ -2.1 | 9.4 |
Waiver Wire Notes
No urgent adds needed with strong projected lead. Monitor: - Isiah Pacheco (KC RB) - returning from injury, could be flex play in future weeks - Cooper Kupp (SEA WR) - just traded to Seattle, may emerge as target alongside JSN - Hunter Henry (NE TE) - 11.2 projection, could replace Engram if needed
Injury Concerns
- Bucky Irving (Active (returning)): Limited snaps, 3-way committee with Tucker/White
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (OUT (appendicitis)): Still projected 13.7 by ESPN (bug)
- Omarion Hampton (IR): Not playing
ESPN Projection Accuracy
XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration
LLM vs ESPN Comparison
Data Quality & Discrepancies
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
Week 13 Discrepancy Log
| Type | Source | Claim | Actual | Resolution | Verified By |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Matchup Correction |
Vegas Lines Subagent | Original game list had incorrect matchups (SEA vs NYJ, etc.) | Corrected to actual Week 13 matchups: MIN @ SEA, ARI @ TB, KC @ DAL, GB @ DET | Used corrected matchups from Vegas subagent web searches | NFL.com schedule, ESPN API roster data |
Subagent Partial Data |
Defense Matchups Subagent | Expected complete 1-32 rankings for all opponents | Returned partial data with many 'Unk' values - only ~30% complete | Used available ranks (WSH 30th vs RB, LV 28th vs WR, CLE 2nd vs RB) and defaults for missing | FantasyPros points allowed referenced in subagent output |
Injury Status Conflict |
XGBoost Boom/Bust Model | Bucky Irving has 54.5% bust probability | Irving returning from 8-week injury, expected ~36% snap share per Coach Bowles | Verified return status via Buccaneers.com - playing but limited snaps | WebSearch - Buccaneers official site, Pro Football Network |
Projection Mismatch |
ESPN API (IBM watsonx) | Marvin Harrison Jr. projected 13.7 points | MHJ practiced LIMITED Wed/Thu after Nov 10 appendicitis surgery - still questionable | Set is_confirmed_out=true, LLM projection = 0.0 (conservative) | Pro Football Network, AZ Cardinals official site |
Weather Alert |
Weather Subagent | Normal conditions expected for all games | Denver has HIGH WIND (21 mph) - significant passing game impact | Downgraded Evan Engram confidence to LOW, noted in weekly context | AccuWeather Denver forecast |
Fallback Triggered |
generate_weekly_mc_report.generate_mc_report | Expected weekly context file for Week 13 | File not found - no LLM-gathered context available | Using default boom/bust probabilities (no opportunity adjustments) | Unk |
Api Failure |
generate_weekly_report.read_mc_report | Expected successful Monte Carlo generation | Exception: No weekly context for 'Bucky Irving'. Available: [] | Report generation halted - investigate error before publishing | Unk |
Api Failure |
generate_weekly_report.read_mc_report | Expected successful Monte Carlo generation | Exception: '<=' not supported between instances of 'str' and 'int' | Report generation halted - investigate error before publishing | Unk |
Api Failure |
generate_weekly_report.read_mc_report | Expected successful Monte Carlo generation | Exception: '>' not supported between instances of 'NoneType' and 'int' | Report generation halted - investigate error before publishing | Unk |
Log timestamp: 2025-11-29T16:00:05.112966